Real-time probability forecasts on 7 key AUS Macroeconomic variables. (3 minutes)
Here are future probabilities on nine key US macroeconomic indicators. We also attach links to the dataset and PDF.
AUS CPI
AUS Building
AUS Cash Rate
AUS Earnings
AUS GDP
AUS Net Foreign Debt
AUS Unemployment
AUS CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in the prices paid by consumers over time. The price is of a market basket of consumer goods and services. The CPI measures inflation as experienced by consumers in their day-to-day living expenses. Almanis forecasts future CPI reports, specifically for the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in the U.S. City Average (not seasonally adjusted).
AUS Building
AUS Buildings dwelling commencements include the total number of public and private housing and other private residential buildings started in Australia. Each residential unit is counted as a separate commencement.
Almanis forecasts percentage change in dwelling commencements on a quarterly frequency.
AUS Cash Rate
The cash rate is a rate set by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) representing the interest that banks and lenders have to pay on the money that they borrow.
Almanis forecasts future values of the RBA cash rate. This is announced by the RBA in a statement immediately following its monthly meeting.
AUS Earnings
AUS Earnings are estimates for average weekly ordinary time earnings for full-time adults (seasonally adjusted). These are reported biannually in May and November, in AUD.
AUS GDP
Nominal AUS Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced within the United States over a specified time period. Changes in GDP are frequently used to indicate a nation's economic growth (or shrinkage).
Almanis provides forecasts on future quarterly GDP reports.
AUS Net Foreign Debt
Net foreign debt is equal to gross foreign debt less non-equity assets such as foreign reserves held by the Reserve Bank and lending by residents of Australia to non-residents.
Almanis forecasts the reported quarterly Net Foreign Debt, in AUD billions.
AUS Unemployment
The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labour force. Unemployment is defined as adults not employed or self-employed that are currently looking for work. Specifically, Almanis provides forecasts on the month-on-month percentage point change in unemployment, which is reported on a monthly basis.
