Weekly update. Probability forecasts on 9 variables in US Macroeconomics (5 minutes)
Here we provide future probabilities on nine key US macroeconomic indicators. We also attach links to the dataset and PDF.
Also listed at the end of this newsletter are the five most active of 275 macroeconomic and geopolitical questions open on Almanis by Dysrupt Labs and links to the dataset and pdf of available questions.
US CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the average change in the prices paid by consumers over time. The price is of a market basket of consumer goods and services. The CPI measures inflation as experienced by consumers in their day-to-day living expenses. Almanis forecasts future CPI reports, specifically for the Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items in the U.S. City Average (not seasonally adjusted).
US GDP
Nominal US Gross domestic product (GDP) is a monetary measure of the market value of all the final goods and services produced within the United States over a specified time period. Changes in GDP are frequently used as an indicator of a nation's economy's economic growth (or shrinkage).
Almanis provides forecasts on future quarterly and annual GDP reports.
US Housing Index
Almanis forecasts future values of the Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index. This index is compiled by Standard & Poor's, tracking changes in the value of residential real estate nationally.
Almanis forecasts monthly as well as annual outlooks on this index of US real estate.
US Housing Starts
Housing Starts or New Privately-Owned Housing Units Started: Total Units are the number of new residential construction projects that begin during the specified month. As such, they are a valuable economic indicator for activity in the residential real estate sector.
Almanis forecasts future housing starts on a monthly frequency. The housing start bins forecasted by Almanis are in thousands of units, e.g. "e. 1000 to 1180" represents between 1 million and 1.18 million housing units started that month.
US Nonfarm Payroll
Non-farm payroll employment is the number of individuals employed by goods, construction and manufacturing companies in the US. It is a measure of employment in the US economy.
Almanis forecasts month on month changes in non-farm payrolls, which are reported monthly by the BLS. The Almanis forecast is expressed on units of thousands: e.g. "e. -3.3 to 106.3" represents a month on month change in non-farm payrolls between -3,000 and +106,300.
US PCE
Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) is a measure of imputed household expenditures over a period of time. It is used to construct the PCE price index, currently the primary inflation index used by the US Federal Reserve.
Almanis forecasts monthly percentage change of the PCE, as well as the annual values of change in PCE. Reports on the PCE are released monthly.
US PPI
The Producer Price Index (PPI) is a price index that measures the average changes in prices received by domestic producers for their output. As such, it is a measure of inflation.
Almanis forecasts monthly percentage change of the PPI and the annual values of change in PPI. Reports on the PPI are released monthly.
US Retail Sales
The U.S. Census Bureau conducts the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey to provide an early estimate of monthly sales by kind of business for retail and food service firms located in the United States.
Almanis provides forecasts on future monthly and annual advanced estimates, reports on which are released monthly.
US Unemployment
The unemployment rate represents the number of unemployed as a percentage of the labor force. Unemployment is defined as adults not employed or self-employed that are currently looking for work. Specifically, Almanis provides forecasts on the U-3 measure of unemployment, which is reported on a monthly basis.
For more information:
Weekly Watchlist:
What will be the last named storm of the 2021 Atlantic season? [Current probability: f. Named from the supplementary list of names 90. 60%] For more details, click here.
By 12 Nov 2021, will the U.S. be drawn into a diplomatic engagement with China over South China or the East China Sea? [Current probability: 1%] For more details, click here.
By 12 Nov 2021, will the Oxford Stringency Index reduce to 40 or below in Japan? [Current probability: 8%] For more details, click here.
By 12 Nov 2021, will the U.S. be drawn into a diplomatic engagement with China in defence of a U.S. treaty partner's territorial claims in South China or East China Sea? [Current probability: 1%] For more details, click here.
By 12 Nov 2021, will the U.S. Congress pass a National Infrastructure Bill [inc. Roads, Bridges & Tunnels], and if so, what will be its value? [Current probability: No Bill 72%] For more details, click here.
The underlying data set for all questions is here:
Searchable live forecasts are here:
For more information on reading our charts:
Background
The combination of a unique dataset and proprietary processing generates AI/ML forecasts that can:
be more accurate than real-world pundits, experts, and group forecasting such as prediction markets, betting markets and weighted surveys
update faster than alternative methods of group forecasting, and
be present 20% of the time.
Contact kellybanks@dysruptlabs.com if you want to know more about:
paid subscriptions to our AI/ML forecasts - 24/7-365,
using our Almanis platform and AI/ML to privately enhance your own expert groups’ forecasts with better accuracy and faster updating,
posting [publicly or privately] your questions about macro or geopolitics, or
extracting actionable intelligence from Almanis forecasts in geopolitics and macroeconomics. Our U.S. Infrastructure Bill case study should help.