Weekly update. US GDP outlook worsens, EU remains stable. (3 minutes)
Here we cover some of the 285 questions in geopolitics and macroeconomics that are being forecast upon Almanis by Dysrupt Labs:
US GDP Expectations [outlook diverging]
EU GDP Expectations [outlook stable]
Links to full dataset and live forecasts at the end of this newsletter.
US GDP
Almanis forecasters’ expectations shifted this past week regarding US GDP for 2021.
Q4 expectations shifted downwards, with current probabilities giving about a 60% chance that Q4 will be in the bottom third of GDP figures in recent history.
This shift appeared in the annual outlook as well: the likelihood that cumulative GDP for 2021 would place it in the top 1% of recent historical GDP figures decreased from 65% to 35%, with most of this lost probability moving to the historically typical portion of the distribution.
This shift in expectations is not explainable due to weakened CPI expectations, which have not shifted much on Almanis this past week.
EU Real GDP
The EA19 GDP forecast remains stable, with an 83% probability of of Q4 real gdp being in the top 1% of historical figures. This constrasts strongly with the US nominal GDP forecast, suggesting tougher times in Q4 for the US than the EU.
The underlying data set is here:
Searchable live forecasts are here:
For more information on reading our charts:
Background
Almanis by Dysrupt Labs has a private global panel of over 1,000 accredited forecasters who have been performing reliably 24/7-365 since 2015.
We use AI/ML analysis of each forecasters’ history and real-time behaviours.
This generates proprietary forecasts that are consistently more accurate than real-world pundits, experts, and group platforms such as prediction markets, betting markets and weighted surveys.
Contact kellybanks@dysruptlabs.com if you want to know more about:
our AI/ML subscription service,
privately enhancing your own expert groups’ forecasts,
posting [publicly or privately] your questions about macro or geopolitics, or
how to extract actionable intelligence from Almanis forecasts in geopolitics and macroeconomics.